Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets -5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
The energy from the crowd at 5,280 feet is going to be crazy tonight with Denver having the chance to win this thing at home. I think that’s going to help fuel the Nuggets early and continue a trend they’ve produced all season and into this series. Denver was one of the highest-scoring first half teams this year, and thus owned one of the best average first-half margins of plus-5.9 points in home games.
They’ve been ahead at halftime in every game this series, averaging an 8 point lead and covering this number in both games at home. They should do it again here behind their massive home court advantage. Additionally, if you can bet half a unit on the 2nd quarter before tipoff at Denver -2 or after the 1st at around that number, I’d highly recommend that angle as the Nuggets are plus-6.8 in 2nd quarters this series.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Heat/Nuggets First Quarter Under 53.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
The first quarter in these games is when a shorthanded, fatigued, and outmatched Heat team has been able to execute their game plan the best. That’s resulted in them being able to slow the game to their preferred pace and maximize their defensive effort. It’s created extremely low scoring every time, with all four games going under this number while averaging 46.8 points. With Miami on the brink tonight, expect that effort and game plan to be effective enough to create another slow start.
Bonus Prop Bets:
(0.75 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 51.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-125; Odds via DraftKings)
A close-out scenario at home should create a signature performance from the best player on the planet. He likely would’ve reached this last game if he didn’t get Scott Foster’ed, and as I keep saying, it’s below his playoff average of 53.2 so I’m jumping in.
(1 Unit) Aaron Gordon Over 19.5 Points+Rebounds (-120; Odds via DraftKings)
Miami simply doesn’t have the matchup to contain him when he plays bully ball. Gordon’s hot shooting this series plus ability on the boards should carry him over what’s essentially been his floor in the Finals.
(1.25 Unit) Bam Adebayo Over 30.5 Points+Rebounds (-120; Odds via DraftKings)
Bam is too important to how the Heat play to not be a focal point of their offense, evidenced by him scoring over 20 points in every game this series. That keeps his floor for this prop extremely high, and I think he gets over it again in a game he’ll need to play well over 40 minutes.
(0.75 Unit) Jamal Murray Over 8.5 Assists (-105; Odds via DraftKings)
Murray has really accepted the role Miami has forced him into of distributor, logging double-digit assists every game. Denver will need him to continue that in this close-out opportunity.
(0.25 Unit) Jamal Murray Double-Double (+145; Odds via DraftKings)
If he gets double-digit assists again, it’s not like his scoring will suffer as he has scored in double figures every game too. At this surprisingly juicy return I’ll take a shot that he records a double-double.
(0.25 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Under 16.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Porter finally got some points on the board in Game 4, but it was not via efficiency or lots of playing time. It’s the NBA Finals with a chance to close things out, there’s no chance Denver will let him try work through his shooting woes, and that means another quiet night in the box score.
(0.5 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Under 1.5 Made Three’s (+110; Odds via DraftKings)
MPJ seriously just can’t shoot right now, and you can see the frustration every time he misses even short-range shots. He will not be given the freedom to fire from deep in this high-stakes scenario, and I think he goes under this again as a result.
(0.25 Unit) Caleb Martin Over 10.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
His minutes went back up to normal in the past two games, and not surprisingly he reached double figures in both. Martin tends to make the most of opportunity and he appears to be getting it, so I’ll roll with him one more time.
(0.25 Unit) Kevin Love Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+100; Odds via DraftKings)
Love has splashed multiple shots from deep in every game he’s played in this series, with plenty of attempts. Other shooters for Miami are struggling and Love tends to get forgotten, so I’ll look for him to knock down at least two again tonight.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Colorado Rockies/Boston Red Sox Under 5.5 First 5 Innings (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM CT on NESN
I’m just having a hard time seeing either team score much in this game overall, but especially early on where I can avoid bad bullpens and the prospect of extra innings. A big factor is how bad Colorado continues to be on the road, where their batting average plummets 42 points and they rank in the bottom-5 of most offensive categories.
They’re also towards the bottom of the league against lefties, which they’ll see in James Paxton tonight. So I’m expecting very little out of Colorado, especially since they had to travel from Denver yesterday after a long game that saw some delays. But the Red Sox are in a tough travel spot themselves, having come from New York where they played extra innings on Sunday Night Baseball.
The team traveling after those games typically comes out sluggish when they have to play again on Mondays. Boston will face a pitcher in Connor Seabold who’s been great recently against some tough lineups, and I think it all makes this pretty high total a little too high.
MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels @ Texas Rangers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on MLB Network
The moneyline in this game has exploded from its inexplicably short opening position, and is now outside of my comfort range. But I think this is Texas’ game from the outset, as they have a massive advantage on the mound tonight.
The Rangers are one of baseball’s best against left-handed pitching, leading the league in scoring and ranking top-5 in just about every other key metric. They’re in their preferred split tonight against a very untrustworthy starter in Tyler Anderson, who’s been hit hard in his past two starts against other teams who are strong against lefties.
And this is a rematch of an early-May game where Anderson allowed the Rangers to hold a 3-0 lead after 5 innings. The other key to that lead was another strong start by Dane Dunning for Texas. The righty has quietly been excellent this season, and puts the Angels in their worse hitting split.
The market still seems to be sleeping on the Rangers despite them having the second-best home record in baseball. They’re also the highest-scoring team in the first five innings of games, and that should carry them to an early lead tonight.
MLB (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays/Oakland A’s Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA
A big story in baseball right now is Oakland playing at a competent level. What’s come with that competence is an avalanche of mean regression against right-handed pitching, pulling the A’s out of the basement for most offensive categories in that split.
The task gets a lot taller today against better pitching from Zach Eflin, but the Rays righty still allowed 3 runs to Oakland in a start early this season, plus his numbers are not good away from home. So I definitely think we’ll get a solid contribution of runs from Oakland, and their overall profile as an awful team deflates this total a bit.
Then we get to Tampa who should not be counted out for potentially clearing this on their own. They did it in every game against the Rays from that early-season series, including crushing tonight’s starter James Kaprielian. The Rays are still far and away the best offense against righties, and the newfound competence from Oakland does not yet include their pitching staff. With a big wind blowing out of Oakland Coliseum tonight, this game should easily clear the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1339-1176 ATS (+70.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.